Not so fast
Have we hit peak virus season yet?
At first glance, it might seem like Wisconsin has passed the high water mark for COVID, flu and RSV:
- COVID hospital admissions have dropped significantly
- So have COVID markers in wastewater
- Respiratory viruses in lab samples all seem to have plateaued or dropped a bit
At this point, you’re probably thinking “He’s got a ‘but,’ doesn’t he? What’s the ‘but’?” And you’re right, I do! All this sounds like good news — and it is. But: even though COVID hospital admissions have dropped, they’re still quite high. Hospitals and particularly intensive care units are quite full. And again, COVID admissions have fallen. But hospitalizations from flu are still climbing, as are mortality rates for all respiratory viruses.
More generally, some bouncing up and down is normal for this time of year. Becker’s Hospital Review explains:
Still, experts say even with the slightly declining cases of flu and COVID-19, experts are underscoring that it isn’t time to relax quite yet — with some even suggesting that another surge could be on the horizon. But right now, “it is too early to know whether activity has peaked for the season,” Alicia Budd, head of the CDC’s domestic influenza surveillance team, told NBC.
“Folks try not to seek care during the holiday season, so we see these divots in the surveillance graphs each year, but it is very probable that during the next weeks, we’ll see an upsurge of cases,” Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner, MD, a physician with the CDC’s Influenza Division, told CBS News.
As that article goes on to mention, there have been 9,400 deaths from flu around the nation this season. 40 of those were pediatric deaths, 13 of which occurred in the last week. Meanwhile, according to the CDC, COVID has killed about 18,000 people since October 2023. 373 of those deaths were in Wisconsin.
Measles, which is staging a mini-comeback these days, might have a lesson for us here. There seems to be a “collective amnesia” about some diseases, says Katelyn Jetelina. Forgetfulness minimizes the danger diseases present. It overstates the risk of vaccination against them. That allows a disease like measles to run in cycles as people learn about it the hard way again and again.
So have we gotten to the peak of the respiratory virus season? Maybe, although I would not be surprised to see a few bounces here and there.
Did we hit the panic button too soon last week in calling on churches to return to masking? No, I don’t think so. For one thing, we were looking at numbers going up quickly, and in no position to say they were going to come back down and keep going down. I’d much rather err on the side of caution than not. The risk of masking and getting vaccinated is low, the potential costs of an infection are high. I’ll take the “too safe” bet every time in that situation.
And even if we are past the peak, we’re just past. As stated above, levels of COVID and other respiratory viruses are still quite high. That makes masking a great way to buy some time. It lowers your chances of giving or receiving an infection until there’s not so many viruses in circulation.
Vaccination, meanwhile, is straight up harm reduction. It lowers your chance of infection, period. And as Jennifer Dowd explains, vaccination is something like a seat belt. It might not prevent an accident, but it gives you a much better chance at walking away from one.
It’s tiring having to think about going back to masks in worship. It’s tiring to have to worry about viruses and whether or not you can get people to take them seriously. It’s tough to follow a disciplined path when no one seems interested. But as scripture says,
Lift your drooping hands and strengthen your weak knees, and make straight paths for your feet, so that what is lame may not be put out of joint, but rather be healed.
I’m not smart enough today to paraphrase that for lungs, but you get the point. Peak or no peak, this isn’t a time to give up — it’s a time to get healed.
P.S.: Did you know the Bible apparently doesn’t mention lungs? I shouldn’t be surprised by this, and yet I am.
The Links
- This is quite a long article on “Long COVID’s deep impact on Latinos,” and I have admittedly not had a chance to read it. But it looks deeply reported and good.
- Misinformation about COVID vaccines costs the US about $300 million a day, according to experts, and may have caused 300,000 unnecessary deaths.
- The number of adults diagnosed with ADHD spiked during the COVID pandemic, leading to a shortage of medications.
- Another (partial) effect of the pandemic: youth mental health is declining. Half of LGBTQ+ kids in Wisconsin have contemplated suicide.
- Speaking of mental health, Advocate Health is offering a Faith and Health Companion training to teach people how to “walk alongside those living with mental illness and substance abuse disorders.”
- Medical mistakes are more likely in women and minorities.
